Dear loyal fellows,
it has been a great week, thank you very much for all the support. I feel this way is making a difference. I am busy working on closing Chapter #1, and opening Chapter #2 which will be moving to a more efficient and organized platform, creating opportunity for the whole group to grow and expand financially. The Inner Circle will be my main priority of focus in the next months. But stay tuned, will release further information later in the day.
Today I will be writing an article about the current market condition as I feel many traders are confused about the pattern change that we are witnessing currently.
For two years the given rule was when BTC rises, ALTS tend to collapse. Who ever followed during the last years and months, a 2% BTC move resulted in -25% ALTS, aka bloodbath on Polo. However that has changed to a degree that ALTS do no longer respect BTC’s up moves in the same manner. Instead, ALTS tend to hold relatively strongly against BTC spikes and reverse quickly back up after the initial excitement has settled. This shows incredible strength of ALTS, and lost of respect towards BTC. Which in turn brings us closer to the pattern of the Golden Age, which I will elaborating on in this article.
Lets first have a look at the current Total Market Capitalization. Coinmarketcap is a great source for that, I definitely suggest checking the chart regularly to get more clues about the market, especially if charts display uncertainty.
Both Total Market Cap and Combined Altcoin Market Cap seem to enter parabolic mode. At this point the trend is rather unstoppable, only few corrections are to be expected at that point, if at all. If we now include Google Trends for the word “Cryptocurrency” we see another parabolic curve:
Interest in crypto is definitely rising. As this is a collective consciousness movement, it is almost impossible to drop. Instead what everybody is waiting for (consciously or unconsciously), is to trigger the critical mass:
In social dynamics, critical mass is a sufficient number of adopters of an innovation in a social system so that the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and creates further growth. - wiki
Although its a debated topic how much % we need to trigger that critical mass, it is clearly foreseeable that crypto will enter that stage some time in the near future, probably along with rising interest and media coverage. Once this thing gets started, it will be unstoppable. And the way I see it, we are right now in the process of leaving bottoms for good.
If we observe the market from an investors perspective, cryptocurrency is still a relatively unchartered territory. I believe in a macro scale we are still in shift Innovator Phase to Early Adopters. In honesty, if you take the global population as a whole, no one bats an eye on cryptocurrencies. It is yet an odd phenomenon, only few people will research after hearing about first, not to mention buy any. Individuals and businesses alike want to get a foot into crypto before it heads off. We already do have Early Adopters like Microsoft, IBM, Big Banks, being busy researching, experimenting, testing and expanding their blockchain products as a preparation for the Early Majority Phase. We therefore are witnessing the shift from Innovators to Early Adopters during the last bear market, which will transform into the Early Majority within the next two years.
There is another shift that is taking place at the same time. After three years of bear market in ALTS, we are now witnessing a historic Major Trend Reversal after retesting the breakout point of the very first rally. Which means we have a Trend Reversal in highly excellent context, Higher Highs, Higher Lows on insanely high volume. BTC’s pumps have no longterm effect on ALTS at this stage, only shortterm selloffs which will be immediately reversed as soon as things calm down.
In July last year we witnessed a test pump in almost all ALTS, which has been again retested at the breakout point. This rally we see today will leave the last years range for good, to never come back again. I am therefore not only expecting All Time Highs for almost all ALTS in the mid-term future, but I see the transformation from Disbelief to Hope happening right now. That means in regard of the entire market cycle, we are at the beginning, not at the end.
Many new traders came into the crypto space in the last year. Most have almost no experience in trading, so they grew up in a bear market / trading range, where there is the rule to buy low, sell high. However we are not in a trading range anymore, but in a bull market, where rules are differently. It is my belief that longterm hold will eventually reap the biggest profits, except you are a godlike trader and know exactly what you do. Most do not, but burn their future wealth in shortterm trades based on emotional unconscious decision-making. It is a losing game. If you have not much experience in those markets, I advise to invest into the most promosing coins (personal research and assessment necessary obviously), let the whole bull market play out, and be patient with taking profit. Just hold. Holding patiently will be winning this game in the long run, bear that in mind. There is a reason Warren Buffet has acquired insane riches in his lifetime, applying just this strategy: seeing potential, buying low & never sell.
In my personal assessment we are in the shift between Disbelief and Hope which will turn into Full Hope with more Higher Highs on daily charts. If you are here right now, you have great chances of buying into the forming trend early without your entry price ever touched again. This is a unique opportunity for all of us. We are at the right time, at the right place, doing the right thing. We got to realize that, so we can make profitable decisions for our personal investment strategy. Do your research, decide which coins you would like to hold in 5+ years when crypto is fully implemented in the world. Create a portfolio with a very longterm perspective. This is not the time to make shortterm trades with small profits. This is the time where you ultimatively need to decide what coins you want to ride in the biggest rallies of all times. Choose wisely.
Remember BTC was created in 08/09. It is therefore almost a decade old already. The ALTCOIN market is still two or three years old on average, most coins considerably less. That means the entire market is lagging behind about five years. We are at the very beginning of the rally, comparable to BTC’s bottoms between 2011 and 2013. If you would have the chance to buy BTC below $10, would you do it? Well, many missed this opportunity, but we have a second chance right in front of our eyes. Lets take a look at some examples:
This is All Time Chart of XRP. We clearly see prices have retested support levels at breakout point, after which we have seen the first Higher High after a long time. Look at that buy volume. This is exactly what you want to see in a Major Trend Reversal at bottom.
Peercoin is one of the earliest cryptocurrencies that successfully participated in the 2013 pump along with Namecoin, Litecoin, Feathercoin and others. Look at that volume coming in as soon as the trendline got broken. This is historic value and highly significant as it indicates a Major Trend Reversal.
Last example in this regard: NXT. This is exactly what you want to see if you are waiting for a bottom to be formed. High volume on upside rallies. Interest is higher than ever and many smart investors are currently busy in accumulating as cheap as possible. NXT is a little older than a year. Imagine buying BTC in 2010 and you get a grasp of what is possible in the long run.
Most traders make the mistake to accept the current range as all there is. They completely dismiss the idea that there is unchartered territory above the current range which might lead to price increases between 100x - 1000x. For the sake of your future self, take the time and think about it. Research promosing coins with real-world adoption chances, decide on a longterm portfolio. Hold.
After all, assuming the ALT market is two - three years old in average, when comparing to BTC All Time Chart, we would be somewhere around here right now:
Exactly. We are so early in this game that the chart we see today will not even be visible in 5+ years. Crypto is at the beginning, and you found your way into this for whatever reason. All that counts is that you are here and might witness the biggest bubble of human kind. I like to be a bit dramatic, you probably sense that. I do believe exactly that, thus I share my most honest thougt.
For those still in #disbelief about the upcoming rally who lack to see the real potential of crypto in the future, a few thoughts to think about:
The entire global financial system is a bubble without fundamentals. The system can only keep on running due to globalization which is basically expansion. This has a naturally ceiling, nothing can grow forever without retesting previous stages. We live in a world that has been built upon the idea of globalization. I am pretty sure you feel the limit of that idea in your working life too. Working more, with less income, doing tasks that you are actually not entitled to do, because the company tries to save money. There is a natural ceiling on that idea, and we are very close. Not to mention that we have a financial system that produces more debt than money needed to repay those debts. It is a vicious cycle, and there is no solution to it, except to create a new system. This is what taking place right now, the setup of a whole new system based on blockchain technology. However what happens with the debts already accumulated? It will be taken to the new system. This ultimatively means that the Crypto bubble will be the last bubble to keep the system running for as long as possible. After that there will be only three bubbles. Gold, Silver & Water. But lets hope this is still far away in the future.
The only important thing is that financial markets are at the verge of a global collapse, and the only way to avoid this is using cryptocurrencies as a hedge. When fiat can be created out of thin air by a private institution (yes, thats what the Federal Reserve is, its a private organization), FIAT is the biggest scam in human history. It is worth exactly as much as the value of the paper its printed on. It is just the people and the trust that creates the impression it has actually value. When the critical mass understands this, FIAT will be over. Crypto will be the first hedge against this collapse, together with Gold and Silver which are artificially suppressed by paper markets. Especially silver is severely undervalued when comparing the Silver/Gold ratio to historical averages, while supply is coming to an end & the whole industry is dependent on it due to silver being needed in the production of technology.
The way I see it we are about to witness the biggest wealth transfer in human history. The old system is weak and about to die, and from the ashes a new system will arise. If thats a good or bad thing is up to discussion, but there is a huge opportunity for all people on this planet to benefit from that change, it is just up to you.
So, in the long run I expect both BTC and ALTS rising parabolic at the same time. We are right in the shift of the pattern BTC up -> Alts down, to BTC up -> Alts up. It takes some time but eventually we will be there. Thus, being invested in the altmarket is such a profitable move longterm. This is what I understand when saying Golden Age of Cryptocurrency. A worldwide hype, pushing up the price of all crypto assets to an unbelievable level, with or without system collapse. Question thus only is: Will you take the opportunity or miss out? You have one shot.
You are here, so chances are good you have a plan. Stick to your plan. Think longterm. Hold.
So I would like to say a few words about this upcoming transition into Hope Phase:
When BTC confirmed the longterm uptrend in daily chart, we witnessed a lot of fake moves and traps along the way. Would you have survived those -30 % drops in just a few hours? Or would you have panic sold at $100 in hope of buying back cheaper, and wake up next morning to a 150% price increase from these levels? If so, you would likely never reached the $1090 top this way.
Emotional stability will be the most important personality trait in this rally. I expect INSANE volatility, all sorts of fake moves and traps. Do not be trapped out of the greatest trade of all time. Stick to your plan. HOLD.
For the sake of practicability I share my current price predictions:
LTC $100+ this year
ETC $100+ this year
XRP $1 within two years
That is without a potential system collapse. If that happens, disregard my predictions. Another thing for the $1 XRP shill. It is banks who will use this system. Banks can create money out of thin air. If they are the largest holder of XRP assets, they can pump it to insane levels using scam fiat. You think $1 is unrealistic? Please think about it again.
From the bottom of my heart, I wish you may make the right decisions. Decide on a strategy. Be patient. Dont get trapped out and left behind. HOLD, and I will not worry about your financial future five years from now. Much success and good luck. We will all need it to survive this rally in order to reap maximum profits.
May you be blessed,